Vietcap Mobile App 
Vietcap Trading 
Download Vietcap Pro 
Open Account 
Vietcap IQ 
User Guides 
TCB released its 2024 results with TOI of VND47.0tn (USD1.9tn; +17.3% YoY) and PBT of VND27.5tn (USD1.1tn; +20.3% YoY), fulfilling 94% and 99% of our respective FY2024 forecasts. These results imply that Q4 2024 PBT was VND4.7tn (-34.9% QoQ; +25.0% YoY). Overall, TCB’s 2024 earnings were in line with our expectations, mostly due to lower-than-expected OPEX and credit costs. We see no material changes to our current forecasts, pending a more extensive review.
- Credit growth in 2024 reached 21.7% (compared to 9M credit growth of 17.5%), driven by a 21.8% increase in gross loans and a 20.7% rise in corporate bonds. In Q4 2024, credit growth was primarily fueled by corporate bonds, while loan growth was flat QoQ. Additionally, retail loans continued to show robust growth, increasing by 8.0% QoQ, outpacing previous quarters.
- 2024 customer deposit growth was 17.3% vs only 8.9% in 9M 2024. TCB’s CASA ratio was 37.4%, relatively flat QoQ but decreased 2.6 ppts YoY.
- 2024 NIM increased 19 bps YoY to 4.21% vs our full-year forecast of 4.28%. On a QoQ basis, we see a continuing contraction in NIM to 3.84% (-39 bps QoQ). We attribute this mostly to a 45 bps QoQ decrease in IEA yield as in H2 2024, TCB disbursed mortgages in the primary market with preferential rates under the high competition between banks. TCB expects 2025F NIM to be flat compared to 2024.
- 2024 NOII was VND11.5tn (-7.2% YoY) and NOII for Q4 2024 alone was VND953bn (-72.1% YoY). We attribute this decline to the (1) weaker fees from the trade service segment in Q4 2024, (2) minimal bancassurance fees after the termination of Manulife’s exclusive bancassurance partnership, and (3) a net loss in FX trading activities.
- TCB announced its record date to get shareholder approval on two matters: (1) the establishment of a life insurance company and (2) the acquisition of shares to make TCGIns, a non-life insurance company, become a subsidiary of TCB. TCB believes bancassurance income in 2025F will improve vs 2024.
- Q4 2024 CIR was 49.6% vs 29.2% in Q3 2024, reflecting the termination of Manulife’s exclusive bancassurance partnership of around VND1.8tn. However, 2024 CIR was maintained at 32.7% (relatively the same with previous years), indicating TCB’s positive cost management.
- Asset quality improved QoQ with the NPL ratio decreasing by 17 bps to 1.17% in 2024 vs our full-year forecast of 1.24%. This decrease was contributed to by both the mortgage and corporate segments. The group 2 loan ratio decreased by 13 bps QoQ to 0.73% in Q4 2024%. Additionally, TCB’s Q4 2024 LLR improved to 113% from 103% in the previous quarter.
TCB’s consolidated 2024 results
VND bn | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY |
NII | 27,691 | 35,508 | 28.2% | 7,597 | 8,602 | 13.2% |
Non-interest income | 12,370 | 11,482 | -7.2% | 3,420 | 953 | -72.1% |
OPEX | (13,252) | (15,370) | 16.0% | (3,610) | (4,741) | 31.3% |
PPOP | 26,809 | 31,621 | 17.9% | 7,407 | 4,814 | -35.0% |
Provision expenses | (3,921) | (4,082) | 4.1% | (1,634) | (118) | -92.8% |
NPAT-MI | 18,004 | 21,523 | 19.5% | 4,439 | 3,371 | -24.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Loan growth** | 23.3% | 21.8% | -1.5 ppts | 9.0% | 0.9% | -8.2 ppts |
Deposit growth** | 26.9% | 17.3% | -9.5 ppts | 11.2% | 7.8% | -3.4 ppts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NIM | 4.02% | 4.21% | 19 bps | 4.17% | 3.84% | -33 bps |
Interest-earning asset yield | 8.22% | 7.12% | -110 bps | 7.92% | 6.72% | -120 bps |
Cost of funds | 4.63% | 3.28% | -135 bps | 4.14% | 3.30% | -84 bps |
CASA ratio* | 39.9% | 37.4% | -2.6 ppts | 39.9% | 37.4% | -2.6 ppts |
CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX | 40.8% | 38.1% | -2.7 ppts | 40.8% | 38.1% | -2.7 ppts |
CIR | 33.1% | 32.7% | -0.4 ppts | 32.8% | 49.6% | 16.9 ppts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NPLs / Gross loans | 1.19% | 1.17% | -2 bps | 1.19% | 1.17% | -2 bps |
Group 2 loans / Gross loans | 0.88% | 0.73% | -15 bps | 0.88% | 0.73% | -15 bps |
Accrued interest / IEAs | 1.27% | 0.88% | -40 bps | 1.27% | 0.88% | -40 bps |
Source: TCB, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth; 2023 and 2024 loan and deposit growth is 12M growth.
Powered by Froala Editor
