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- SZC announced its Q4 2024 results with revenue of VND230bn (USD9.2mn; -11% YoY but +39% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND75bn (USD3.0mn; +34% YoY and +26% QoQ). Q4 2024 results were mainly driven by the scheduled IP land handovers, including the handover of 7.5 ha of IP land to Steel Builder.
- In 2024, SZC’s revenue increased 6% YoY to VND871bn (USD35mn) while NPAT-MI surged 38% YoY to VND302bn (USD12mn), completing 94% and 100% of our respective forecasts. The 2024 results represented 98% and 120% of the preliminary revenue and PBT figures that the company announced in early January, respectively.
- For the IP segment, 2024 revenue increased 12% YoY to VND765bn (USD31mn; equal to 98% of our forecast) while GPM jumped to 61.0% from 54.4% in 2023 (compared to our 2024F forecast of 57.4%). We attribute the higher-than-expected GPM mainly to a higher average selling price (ASP) in 2024 (market price of ~USD90-100/sqm) surpassing our projection. In addition, SZC recorded 2024 IP land sales of 46 ha (compared to our forecast of 50 ha), bringing the cumulative leased area at its Chau Duc IP to around 570 ha (~52% occupied) as of end-2024.
- For the UA segment, 2024 revenue declined 57% YoY to VND31bn (USD1.2mn), completing 41% of our forecast. UA revenue is mainly from the sales/handovers of shophouses at the Huu Phuoc UA project in Ba Ria – Vung Tau (~160 shophouses and ~500 townhouses; ~75% presold for the shophouses). We attribute the low revenue of this segment to a slow recovery for the real estate market in tier-2 regions.
- As of end-2024, SZC recorded total unearned revenue and advances from customers of VND983tn (USD39mn; +43% YoY and -5% QoQ). Notably, advances from customers as of end-2024 included VND374bn (USD15mn) from Tripod (an 18-ha contract) and VND134bn (USD5.4mn) from Vina One Steel (a 12-ha contract).
- Overall, we anticipate no significant changes to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast of VND428bn (USD17mn; +42% YoY) as the end-2024 IP land backlog is broadly in line with our expectations.
SZC’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024F | 2024 as % of 2024F |
Net revenue | 259 | 230 | -11% | 818 | 871 | 6% | 929 | 94% |
| 223 | 197 | -12% | 684 | 765 | 12% | 780 | 98% |
| 18 | 14 | -18% | 72 | 31 | -57% | 75 | 41% |
| 14 | 15 | 8% | 48 | 55 | 14% | 60 | 91% |
| 4 | 4 | -3% | 14 | 19 | 42% | 14 | 141% |
Gross profit | 93 | 97 | 5% | 350 | 431 | 23% | 464 | 93% |
SG&A expenses | -24 | -19 | -21% | -55 | -61 | 12% | -65 | 94% |
EBIT | 68 | 78 | 14% | 295 | 369 | 25% | 399 | 93% |
Financial income | 8 | 21 | 168% | 17 | 40 | 134% | 23 | 176% |
Financial expense | -11 | -7 | -41% | -46 | -35 | -25% | -43 | 80% |
Net other income | 1 | 0 | N.M. | 0 | 0 | N.M. | 0 | N.M. |
PBT | 65 | 92 | 41% | 267 | 375 | 40% | 378 | 99% |
NPAT-MI | 56 | 75 | 34% | 219 | 302 | 38% | 303 | 100% |
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GPM | 35.8% | 42.3% |
| 42.8% | 49.5% |
| 50.0% |
|
| 55.9% | 64.1% |
| 54.4% | 61.0% |
| 57.4% |
|
| 24.9% | 72.0% |
| 65.6% | 69.0% |
| 67.8% |
|
OPM | 26.5% | 33.9% |
| 36.1% | 42.4% |
| 42.9% |
|
NPM | 21.7% | 32.7% |
| 26.8% | 34.7% |
| 32.6% |
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Source: SZC, Vietcap forecasts (Last updated October 7, 2024)
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