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- We cut our target price for NT2 by 11% to VND23,500/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to MARKET PERFORM.
- Our lower target price is driven by our 11% lower aggregate 2023-2027F reported NPAT forecast (respective cuts of 6%/37%/5%/4%/4% in 2023/24/25/26/27F). This is primarily due to our 5% lower aggregate 2023-2027F sales volume projection following weaker-than-expected 11M 2023 results and because we believe the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) plans to mobilize 14% YoY lower volume from gas-fired power nationwide in 2024. Additionally, we assume 3% lower competitive generation market (CGM) prices on average in 2023-2028F for NT2 following a 4% cut to our projections for sector average CGM prices in this period (Please see our Thermal Power Sector Report dated December 18, 2023).
- We forecast 2023F reported NPAT to decline by 57% YoY with implied Q4 NPAT of VND126bn (-21% YoY) but expect a 20% YoY rebound in 2024F reported NPAT.
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