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Energy Sector Update - Domestic exploration & production to enter new cycle

Sector Reports

24 Jul 2023

We believe domestic exploration & production (E&P) activities will recover starting in 2024. We estimate total domestic E&P spending of USD14bn in 2023-2033, implying an average of ~USD1.4bn p.a. This is double the total capex in 2016-2022 and equivalent to ~80% of total capex in the peak period of 2010-2015. This spending will be driven by projects such as the giant Block B – O Mon project, White Lion – Phase 2B gas field and Yellow Camel oil field.

We raise our estimated potential workload (including capex and operating costs) for the Block B project from USD9bn to USD14bn mainly due to the incorporation of capex for constructing 42 wellhead platforms in 2029-2041 (USD4.2bn). We expect Block B to receive a final investment decision (FID) in late 2023 or in H1 2024 (later than the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s latest guidance of mid-2023) and secure a gas price of USD13-14/MMBTU.

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